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What Influences Treasury Bill Rates?

The yield on Treasury bills, also known as T-bills, is influenced by a number of factors, including the current Fed rate and the rate of inflation.

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Managing Editor

Pamela de la Fuente is a managing editor of NerdWallet's personal finance content. She leads budgeting, money-making, consumer credit and and debt coverage.

Ask her and her talented team about why credit scores matter, how to save money on your grocery bill, finding the right side hustle, how to protect your identity for free and more.

Previously, she led taxes and retirement coverage at NerdWallet.

Pamela joined NerdWallet after working at companies including Hallmark Cards, Sprint Corp. and The Kansas City Star. She has been a writer and editor for more than 20 years.

Pamela is a thought leader in content diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging, and finds ways to make every piece of content conversational and accessible to all.

She is a graduate of the Maynard Institute's Maynard 200 program, and the National Association of Black Journalists Executive Leadership Academy. She is a two-time winner of the Kansas City Association of Black Journalists' President's Award. She was also founding co-chair of NerdWallet's Nerds of Color employee resource group.

Updated July 9.

Rates are rising: After trading as low as 4.01% in late June, the rate on 4-week T-bills has rebounded so far in July to levels seen earlier in the year. The rate has held at 4.23% on July 8 and 9 after hitting 4.25% on July 7.

Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the federal government that mature in increments that range from four weeks to a year.

They differ from other Treasury-issued securities (like T-bonds and T-notes) by those shorter maturity periods and because they don’t pay periodic interest rates. Instead, T-bills are auctioned by the government at a discount to their face value, and the total return amounts to the difference between what you paid and the face value at maturity.

Factors that influence T-bill yields

Here are some of the factors that influence T-bill yields:

Interest rates: T-bill returns tend to move in tandem with the federal funds rate, or Fed rate.

Term: Typically, the longer the term, the higher the yield (and thus, the lower the price relative to face value). This is because investors take a greater risk that rates will go up as they tie up their money for longer periods. 

Inflation: If the annualized yield on a T-bill falls below the rate of inflation, it becomes less attractive to investors, as they would in effect lose money on their investment. 

Macroeconomic conditions: In a robust and expanding economy, investors have many options, and T-bill and other bond prices will likely fall (thus increasing the yield) to stay competitive. Conversely, in times of uncertainty, demand for T-bills and their relative safety can increase. This pushes the price higher. 

»MORE: For a detailed look at how T-bills work, and how to buy them, check out NerdWallet’s beginner’s guide to T-bills.

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on Vanguard's website

on Fidelity's website

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